Consumer confidence saw mild improvement in November 2024
- Overall index moved only slightly (+0.3)
- Household finance measures improved for the past 30 days (+1.8) and next 12 months (2.2)
- Minor rise in retrospective business activity measures (+0.7) as well as outlook (+1.2)
- Job security dwindled in the past month (-0.5), while outlook fell even further (-3.4)
November offered little Christmas cheer for consumer confidence, according to the latest data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). A boost to household finance measures helped lift the overall index from 110.9 to 111.2 (+0.3), but declines in other metrics – and stagnation in others still – kept these improvements small.
YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and on their forecast for the coming 12 months.
Household finance measures saw the largest improvement of Keir Starmer’s tenure as prime minister so far. Scores for the past 30 days jumped from 93.2 to 95.0 (+1.8), while scores for the year ahead improved from 96.6 to 98.8 (+2.2). These scores remain negative overall, but have this month inched closer to positive territory.
There was also a rise in business activity measures, which we might attribute to a pre-Christmas bounce. Employees were more likely to say that their workplaces were busy over the past 30 days, with scores increasing from 111.7 to 112.4 (+0.7), while outlook increased from 124.2 to 125.4 (+1.2).
But other measures painted a less positive picture. Employees were more fretful about their positions than they were a month previous, with job security scores falling from 98.0 to 97.5 (-0.5), while outlook saw a more significant dip from 116.2 to 112.9 (-3.3).
House prices were largely stagnant: retrospective scores increased from 116.0 to 116.3 (+0.3), while outlook moved from 131.2 to 131.0 (-0.2).
Sam Miley, Managing Economist and Forecasting Lead at Cebr, said:
“The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index has largely plateaued since Labour took office earlier this year. Despite the lack of change in the headline measure, there are some interesting dynamics within its components. For instance, the metrics for household finances are now showing some of their strongest readings since 2021, with the worst of the cost-of-living crisis now firmly behind us.
Elsewhere, there were declines on both of the labour market metrics in November, following simultaneous improvements in October. With the Budget having taken place between these two readings, it is fair to judge that policy announcements had an adverse impact on consumers’ perceptions of their job security.”