With Brexit negotiations having now passed the deadline set by the European Parliament, it now looks likely that there will not be a trade deal agreed between Britain and the EU before the transition period ends.
While 44% of Britons oppose leaving the transition period with the EU without a trade deal, one in three Britons support it (32%). This includes fully two-thirds (67%) of Leave voters.
Although they may support the move, Leave voters are split on the likely impact. One in three (33%) think it will be good for Britain, while a similar number (32%) think it will make no difference either way. Only 20% think it will be bad for Britain – in marked contrast to the 81% of Remain voters who think the same.
Among all Britons, 48% think leaving without a deal will be bad, compared to 15% who think it will be good and 19% who think it will make no difference.
A majority of Britons think that leaving without a deal will result in the price of food and groceries increasing (59%) and the economy will take a short-term hit (54%). Pluralities also expect that immigration levels will fall (44%) and that British companies will do worse (41%).
On other factors the picture is much more mixed. When it comes to the outlook for the economy long term, one in three (35%) think it will ultimately do better, while a similar proportion (33%) think the opposite.
Naturally, Remain and Leave voters have very different expectations. Although Brexit backers are completely divided on the short-term economic impact – 29% think the economy will get better, 29% worse, and 29% no difference – they overwhelmingly think it will improve in the long term (70%). By contrast, eight in ten Remain voters (82%) think the economy will be hit in the short term, and 63% think it will be worse off in the long term.
Leave voters think immigration levels will fall (61%), while Remain voters are less sure (34% think so, with 45% thinking there will be no change). Remain voters are convinced food prices will go up (82%), while Leave voters are split between those who think they will remain the same (44%) and those who think price rises will occur (39%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is the figure Britons would hold most accountable for any failure to reach an agreement. Four in ten (42%) say he would bear “a lot of the responsibility for Britain leaving without a deal”, with a further 23% saying he would bear some of the responsibility.
Next are the EU, whom 35% think would bear a lot of the responsibility if talks break down. Another 25% think they would be partly responsible.
Among MPs, those who voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal in order to get a no-deal Brexit are unsurprisingly those held most culpable in the event a trade deal isn’t reached. One in three (34%) say these MPs would bear a lot of responsibility, with another 23% saying they would be partly responsible.
A third also see Leave voters as being much to blame in the event that Britain leaves the transition period without a deal, with another 16% thinking they are partly responsible. By contrast, only 26% feel that Remain voters would be in any way responsible for the situation.
Theresa May is increasingly off the hook for her role in failing to agree a Brexit deal with the EU. Half of Britons (51%) see her as responsible if no trade deal is reached, down from 68% in February 2019 when she was still Prime Minister. The number feeling that she would bear “a lot” of the responsibility has more than halved in that time, from 35% to 16%.
Again, Remain and Leave voters have completely different views.
For Leave voters the primary culprit would be the EU, who 81% would hold responsible for a no deal scenario, including 64% who say they would bear “a lot” of the responsibility.
For Remain voters, Boris Johnson would be the primary architect of leaving without a deal – 85% would hold him responsible, including 69% giving him “a lot” of the responsibility.
By contrast, Leave voters are as likely to say Theresa May (57%), and even Jeremy Corbyn (57%), bear responsibility for a no-deal exit as they are Boris Johnson (55%). In fact, Leave voters are more likely to assign the Labour leader “a lot” of the responsibility (34%) than either Conservative prime minister (21-22%).