Public predictions – Who will win the Super Bowl?
January 19th, 2024, Kineree Shah

Public predictions – Who will win the Super Bowl?

As the Super Bowl is fast approaching, the anticipation amongst fans is palpable. In the midst of this excitement, YouGov’s survey data sheds light on the public’s predictions and preferences for the upcoming championship.

We asked 5000+ US adults which team they believe will clinch the title. The San Francisco 49ers are currently leading public sentiment with 18% betting on their triumph. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs are close behind, each securing 17% of the vote. Interestingly, females are nearly twice as likely to predict a Chiefs' victory—a phenomenon likely influenced by the Taylor Swift effect, given the heightened visibility of the Chiefs among her fanbase this season (23% females and 15% males).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a modest 4% of Americans believing in their potential for victory. Delving deeper into age demographics, 18-29 aged adults display more variance in their predictions, showing a stronger preference for teams like the Detroit Lions (17%) and the Buffalo Bills (16%), suggesting that youth may be drawn to teams that resonate with an underdog spirit or have shown promising turnarounds. Regional biases are also evident, with fan predictions often aligning with geographic loyalties.

When the question shifts from prediction to desire, from 'who will win' to 'who do fans want to win', the landscape changes slightly. The Detroit Lions lead the pack with 20% share of the national vote, suggesting a loyal and hopeful fan base. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans are also popular choices, each with 14% and 13% respectively, of fans wishing to see them lift the coveted trophy.

The survey also provides insights into regional allegiances, with certain teams enjoying fervent support in their respective corners of the country. For instance, the Buffalo Bills boast a 27% support rate in the Northeast, whereas the Detroit Lions are the clear favorites in the Midwest with one third favoring them (33%). The Houston Texans stand out in the South with one in five Americans rooting for them (21%). Contrasting with these local favorites, the San Francisco 49ers find their strongest backing in the West, with a quarter of respondents' hoping for a Super Bowl win.

The divergence between public sentiment and professional sportsbook odds is striking as per data from FanDuel on January 19. Despite the 49ers and Ravens leading the odds at 7/4 and 27/10 respectively, they appear to be undervalued by the general public, which could suggest either an undetected potential seen by the fans or a cautious approach to the frontrunners. Conversely, the Houston Texans, positioned at 33/1, seem to have won an optimistic favor from the public, significantly outweighing their underdog status in the eyes of the betting experts.

As teams and fans gear up for the big game, the insights from the YouGov survey provide more than just numbers; they reveal the stories and emotions that define the Super Bowl experience. For businesses and marketers, understanding these sentiments can be instrumental in creating targeted campaigns that resonate with the fanbase. For the rest of us, these statistics serve as a prelude to the drama that will unfold on the field, where predictions, preferences, and passions will all play out in real time.

Make smarter business decisions with better intelligence. Understand exactly what your audience is thinking by leveraging our panel of 20 million+ members.

Cover photo by Pixabay