Plummeting confidence in house prices drags down consumer confidence

• Overall consumer confidence deteriorates in June 2023 (-1.7)
• Retrospective house price measures fall by 5.8 points; outlook falls by 10.3 points
• Confidence in house prices for the next 12 months declines after seven months of improvements
• Outlook for job security improves (+2.4)

Consumer confidence declined from 103.3 to 101.6 (-1.7) in June 2023, according to the most recent data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). The decline in the overall index can be largely explained by a sharp fall in home value measures.

Measures tracking homeowners’ perceptions of property values for the past 30 days slumped from 113.2 to 107.4 (-5.8), while outlook crashed from 118.5 to 108.2 (-10.3). Rising mortgage rates and a cooling housing market have likely informed these increasingly pessimistic sentiments.

Other measures have been more of a mixed bag. Scores for household finances over the past 30 days worsened from 79.8 to 78.7 (-1.1) – the first time they’ve fallen since October 2022 – but outlook saw a modest improvement, inching upwards from 80.6 to 81.0. Both measures remain negative.

The data also reveals that employees were slightly less positive about their job security for the past 30 days – with scores dwindling from 94.4 to 94.0 (-0.4), but perceptions for the next 12 months jumped from 112.1 to 114.6 (+2.5). These workers also perceived mild improvements in business activity in the past month, which increased from 108.8 to 109.5 (+0.7), and with outlook improving from 118.8 to 119.4 (+0.6), they’re also a little more optimistic about the future.