A stagnant September for consumer confidence

• Overall index saw little change (+0.1) 
• Retrospective household finance measures slightly increased (+0.7)but people’s outlook for the next year worsened (-2.2)
• Perceptions of job security improved over past 30 days (+1.2), but optimism for the year ahead dropped (-3.3) 
• Views on business activity increased for the last month (+3.3) and the next 12 months (+0.6) 

Consumer confidence saw little movement in September 2024, according to the latest data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). While certain measures did see improvement and deterioration, the effect on the overall index – which moved from 110.9 to 111.0 – was relatively small. 

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and on their forecast for the coming 12 months. 

The UK public were more likely to report that household finance measures had improved over the previous 30 days, with scores rising from 92.7 to 93.4 (+0.7). Simultaneously, the mood around the next 12 months became gloomier, with the forward looking measure deteriorating from 97.4 to 95.2 (-2.2).

The mixed sentiment extended into job security. Workers felt safer in their roles over the past month (+1.2), but – with outlook falling from 118.4 to 115.1 (-3.3) – they were decidedly more pessimistic about the future. 

They were, however, happier about the state of their workplaces. Business activity measures for the past 30 days jumped from 109.4 to 112.7 (+3.3), while the outlook for the next 12 months increased from 125.6 to 126.2 (+0.6). 

Another area of improvement – albeit small improvement – was house prices. With scores rising from 115.5 to 116.1 (+0.6), UK homeowners were more likely to believe the value of their properties went up over the past 30 days. The mood for the next 12 months was also (very) slightly more optimistic: scores rose from 131.2 to 131.4 (+0.2). 

Sam Miley, Managing Economist and Forecasting Lead at Cebr said:

“Beneath the broadly unchanged Confidence Index lie some areas of concern. One area of note is job security, with consumers becoming less confident in their future labour market prospects. This broadly aligns with wider data, notably the ongoing slowdown in the rate of earnings growth and fall in the number of vacancies. Forward-looking confidence over household finances also took a hit this month, despite interest rates now starting to fall amidst lower inflation.

Looking ahead, policy announcements at the upcoming Budget will provide a clearer indication of the new Government’s approach towards the economy and will likely impact the Confidence Index in the months ahead.”