Urban Indian consumers prepare for increased spending this Diwali
As brands prepare for the upcoming festive season, YouGov’s Diwali Spending Index reveals a spending propensity of 117.37 among urban Indians- the highest in four years.
Since 2020, YouGov’s Diwali Spending Index has been tracking the spending propensity of consumers during the Diwali season. This year there has been a significant increase from last year’s figure of 96.43, indicating strong enthusiasm among consumers.
The surge in spending propensity is particularly pronounced in tier-1 cities, which have seen a 35% increase compared to 30% last year. Additionally, consumers in Northern India appear to be driving this growth more than those in other regions.
The Index was calculated as a weighted impact of 9 factors (like increase in gross household income, increase/decrease in household expenses, intent to invest or splurge, and general optimism towards the economy) on their intent to spend more/less this Diwali season versus last.
Of these factors, the attribute with the highest weightage on the score is the increased household income. More than a third of urban Indians (35%) agreed with the statement, “My gross household income is higher today than it was a year ago” – a slight increase from 32% who said this last year.
Furthermore, nearly a quarter of urban Indians (24%) strongly agreed that they have more savings today than a year ago, and a fifth (21%) intend to splurge during Diwali. These factors are likely contributing to the heightened spending intent.
YouGov data shows that a third of urban Indians (34%) said they are likely to spend more than last year during Diwali in 2024, up from 31% who said this in 2023. The proportion of consumers who intend to spend less this year remains nearly the same as last year (25% in 2024 vs 26% in 2023), while those who wish to spend the same amount is at 28% in 2024.
Commenting on this, Deepa Bhatia, General Manager at YouGov India, said, “Our Diwali Spending Index 2024 reveals a record high of 117.37, the highest since the last four years. This increase, particularly driven by higher household incomes and increased savings, indicates the importance of the festive period for consumption in the economy. It's clear that consumers are embracing the festive spirit with renewed enthusiasm despite some concerns on the economy surfacing. To capture the full potential of this opportunity, an understanding of consumer segments and motivations is a prerequisite for brands and marketers.”
Methodology:
The Diwali Spending Index is based on data collected through a survey conducted on a sample of 2019 respondents on YouGov India’s online panel in September 2024. The sample primarily constitutes consumers from NCCS A (with some proportion of B); and matches the population numbers of urban India in terms of basic demographics like age, gender, regions, and city tiers.
The Index is calculated as a weighted impact of 9 factors (like increase in gross household income, increase/decrease in household expenses, intent to invest or splurge, and general optimism towards the economy) on their intent to spend more/less this Diwali season versus last.
The Index has been derived using Ordinal Logistic Regression and Johnson’s Relative Weight modelling to understand the relationship between each of the factors and the overall intention to spend more this Diwali amongst consumers.
For the calculation of the final Index, two sets of weighted averages were calculated basis respondent data – 1) assuming an equal weightage for all factors (which has been used as the base); 2) with actual weights for each of the factors derived from the regression and JRW analysis.
The final Index = Actual weighted spending intent / Hypothetical spending intent assuming equal weightage to all 9 predictors