50- 50 dead heat in latest YouGov poll

Labor primary vote down to 30%, Coalition up to 39%, Greens up to 14%

YouGov’s latest Public Data poll is a dead heat with a 50% -50% two party preferred result. If a federal election was held now, the result would be too close to call.

Labor Primary vote was down two points to 30% while the Coalition increases two points to 39% with the Greens up 1% to 14% and One Nation down 1% to 7%, compared to our August 29th poll.

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data, said, “Labor’s primary vote is down to 30%, nine points behind the Coalition at 39% which after preferences would produce a dead heat. Neither Labor nor the Coalition would be likely to receive a majority in the House of Representatives if an election was held today.”

The satisfaction for both party leaders once again remains negative.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s score satisfaction rate is -22 (36% satisfied, 58% dissatisfied).

Comparatively, the Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton’s score is less negative coming in at -10 (40% satisfied, 50% dissatisfied).

However Anthony Albanese remains as the preferred Prime Minister, but his margin is only 2%, 42% prefer of Albanese, while 39% prefer Dutton.

19% of Australians don’t prefer either party leader as Prime Minister.

Please see more insights on the YouGov website.

Methodology: This survey was conducted between September 13th and 19th 2024 with a sample of 1619. Results are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, weighting by past vote (Federal vote and Voice referendum), with an effective margin of error of 3.2%. See Australian Polling Council methodology statement for full weightings.

YouGov correctly predicted the result of the recent referendum at 40% Yes, 60% No, and is a founding member of the Australian Polling Council, as well as a global leader in polling research. We are the only polling company to have polled our entire panel of survey participants to ensure our polls are representative of how Australians voted in the Voice referendum.