International COVID-19 tracker update: 6 July

Latest round-up of YouGov’s coronavirus survey results

National outlook

In several countries – all in the West or Middle East – there has been significant setback in the belief that the domestic coronavirus situation is improving:

• In Spain the proportion of people who think the national coronavirus situation is getting worse rose from 10% to 32%.
• In Australia this figure increased from 18% to 39%
• In France from 13% to 29%
• In UAE from 9% to 24%
• In Norway from 27% to 39%
• In Denmark from 12% to 22%
• In Germany 29% to 38%
• In the USA, where belief that the outbreak was getting worse was already high, the proportion of people feeling this way jumped from just under half (47%) to just under two thirds (64%).

Saudi Arabia and Poland are the only countries with big shifts in the opposite direction. Saudi Arabia is just coming off a spike in cases, so the proportion of people thinking the pandemic is getting worse nationally falling from 42% to 22% makes sense in that context.

The change in Poland is more modest, with figures falling from 53% to 41%.

Global outlook

There is also noticeable pessimism about the global spread of COVID-19. Belief that things are getting worse globally tends to move hand in hand with sentiment nationally, so it is no surprise to see big shifts in the countries listed above.

But global gloominess is also increasing in areas where people are fretting less about coronavirus at home.

For instance in Finland belief that the pandemic is getting worse internationally jumped from 36% to 56%, despite effectively no change in the amount of people thinking the same about the outbreak within Finland (5-7%).

In the UK this figure rose from 31% to 45%, and Vietnam and Taiwan both say nine point increases to 54% and 52% respectively. In the latter two cases, such views have been increasing in prevalence for the last month now.

In fact, of the 26 markets covered by the survey, in only one are people less likely to think things are getting worse on a global level than they were the week before (in Saudi Arabia, almost certainly tied to the fact that national sentiment is improving).

A further seven saw no shift or shift only within the margin of error.

Government approval

Approval of the American government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak has reached its worst level to date. Just 38% of Americans think the Trump administration has managed the crisis well, compared to 56% who think it has done badly. This gives a net score of -18, down from -11 the week before.

Across the border, approval ratings for the Mexican government are up from their nadir, although still lower than they are for their northern neighbour. Around one in three Mexicans (35%) think the crisis has been handled well, versus 60% who say it has been managed well. The net score of -25 is an improvement on the previous score of -32, but is still the worst in the world.

After initial improvement in early to mid June, the French are returning to hating their rulers. Around four in ten (38%) say the Macron government has managed the outbreak well, compared to 56% who say poorly. The net score of -18 is down from -12 the week before, and from +2 the week before that. It also means the French are tied with Americans for the dubious honour of being the second most negative about their government.

There has been a noticeable dip in support for the Filipino government, with their net score falling from +21 to +6. At this point half (51%) of Filipinos say the crisis is being handled well, compared to 45% who say the opposite.