Consumer confidence maintains 2019 high after tumultuous month in Parliament

• Confidence maintains 2019 high of 105.5 in May
• Job security and business activity take a hit while prospects for house value and household finances improve
• Three constituent metrics rose, while five fell

Consumer confidence has maintained last month’s 2019 high of 105.5, with the outlook for household finances and house values improving the most.

Job security and business activity, however, have suffered over the past month, with job security falling 3.8 points to 90.1 and business activity 1.5 points to 108.1.

Although, any score over 100 means more consumers are confident than unconfident, May’s reading is still relatively subdued – only four months since the beginning of 2014 have seen a lower consumer confidence score.

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents are asked about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, both over the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.

Three of the eight metrics which combined create the headline metric were up in May (versus four positive moves last month), while five fell.

Household finances rose 0.9 points over the last month to 94.2. This is also higher than the 93.4 seen this time last year. Expectations for the coming year also improved, increasing 3.1 points from 94.5 to 97.6.

House value sentiment decreased by 0.8 points to 111.1 over the past month, while expectations for the coming 12 months strengthened by 3.8 points. This puts the forward looking metric at its highest value since November 2018.

Job security has taken a hit this month after peaking in April at 93.9, falling to 90.1. Expectations for the coming year continued the downwards trend, decreasing by 0.7 points to 111.5 – albeit remaining higher than this time last year (110.1).

Business activity has also fallen in May decreasing by 1.5 points to 108.1 over the past month. Expectation for the coming year also slipped 1.8 points to 112.9.

Nina Skero, Director at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said: “After improving for three consecutive months, the YouGov/Cebr consumer confidence index stagnated in May. Some people have welcomed the Prime Minister’s resignation as a move that will break the Brexit deadlock, while others see it as a further source of uncertainty. Generally, households are skeptical about the prevailing economic climate, as witnessed by a decline in the job security and business activity measures. Still, the tight labour market drove up the household finances measure.”

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