Retail & FMCG sector review 2024: shifting trends in Romania
As Romanian shoppers dive into 2025 with a lot of uncertainty due to the political and economic context, we review our top insights on the local retail and FMCG sector over the past year. From a more value-driven consumerism and promo-hunting behavior to increasing loyalty for discounters and shrinking the shopping basket in hypermarkets, here's what generated shifting trends in Romanian market.
It's about price and promo
FMCG inflation was changing gears: it reached 3.6% in 2024 vs 2023, much lower compared to the previous period (9,8% in 2023 vs. 2022). Still, it had the biggest contribution to the 7% value growth rate of FMCG sector in Romania. An obvious point here is that falling inflation is not the same as falling prices – while inflation may be dropping, prices remain high, which means Romanians continue to struggle with their household budgets. Last autumn, 4 out of 10 Romanian shoppers were worried that prices would rise further, and they were thinking this would affect their shopping behavior for daily necessities - according to the latest edition of YouGov Behavior Change Survey.
In this context, producers' brands invested massively in promotions, and they fueled the shopper's appetite for "good deals" in retail. YouGov Shopper Panel Romania reveals that promo sales had a boost in FMCG last year: they reached 23.5% of total FMCG (excl. Fresh Food) purchases for in-home, up 3pp vs. 2023. Promo share grew across all channels, but mostly in hypermarkets, discounters and online shops.
On the other hand, compared to 2023, retailers' private labels were losing ground towards branded products: for the first time in recent history, we have witnessed the market share decline of Private Labels segment in Romanian retail. PL covers now 24.3% of total households purchases of FMCG (excl. Fresh Food), while in 2023 the share was 25%.
This is, partially, the effect of promo intensification trend. In general, manufacturer brands can gain a competitive edge over retailers' private labels through strategic promotional investments. Moreover, many Brands managed to improve their presence in Discounters, which are the no1 retail channel in Romania since 2023.
So, manufacturer brands performed better and gained market share compared to retailers' private labels. This trend reveals an increase in consumer preference for higher-priced (up-trading) across the entire FMCG market in Romania. There was a positive net effect of up-trading (2.8%) on the sector value growth rate in 2024 vs. previous year.
More copying strategies to keep the expenses under control
Another shift in trend is the buying frequency decline in 2024 vs the previous year, while in the post-pandemic years there were more and more shopping missions for in-home consumption. On the other hand, the FMCG shopping basket is growing, which indicates that households are better planning their grocery shopping for home, thus a greater desire to keep the expenses under control.
The average basket value was growing by 9% last year vs 2023, similar rate to the previous period when inflation was double. But the increase is not coming only from inflation - there is an impact on value dynamic coming from larger shopping basket size, as stock-up and large stock-up shopping missions have become more important at the total market level.
Looking at the basket composition, YouGov Shopper Panel Romania data shows that food decreased the value share in 2024 vs the previous year, while beverages, home care and personal care covered more of the households' budget. Following the VAT increase from 9% to 19% on products with high sugar content, starting January '24, almost all affected categories have seen volume decline. In confectionery, only the pralines were flat in terms of volume, while the other sub-categories were declining. The biggest confectionery segment - chocolate tablets - posted a 10% drop last year vs 2023.
Discounters increasing the share of wallet
With discounters reaching already 90% penetration within Romanian households and continuing to invest in new store openings, the hypermarkets will have to defend more and more against their main competitors' strategy of becoming a one-stop-shop. Last year, the share of big baskets (more than 12 categories bought in-store, in one visit) increased in discounters, while there was an opposite trend in hypermarkets. The biggest discounters in Romania, Lidl and Penny, increased shopper loyalty or the share of wallet in 2024 vs. previous year - thus posting the best performance in Top5 Retailers. It's worth mentioning, as well, the new entry French group Auchan in Discount segment, as the move has contributed to the channel's development.
Online shops recruit new buyers each year in Romania, but they still have a very low share in FMCG for in-home consumption. The total e-grocery market (including, as well, the Romanians acquisitions from brick & mortar shops through delivery apps) stabilized at around 2% market value share.
The contraction of traditional trade channel continues, while at the opposite modern proximity stores gained share due to more shopping missions.
The way ahead
Promotional strategy will continue to play a crucial role in defining brand success in retail. Explore value-added promotions and loyalty programs to drive genuine brand loyalty and avoid a race to the bottom on price. Consider personalized promotions based on shopper data.
Expanding to new territories in Romania is still useful for the retailers with a lower shopper base, while the leading players Kaufland and Lidl, having reached high penetration figures, are rather increasing shopper loyalty through expansion. On the other hand, the latest strategic movements through mergers and acquisitions will further consolidate the local FMCG trade. At the beginning of 2025, Delhaize Group has announced the completion of Profi stores chain integration, thus becoming the new entry in Top3 retailers, after Kaufland and Lidl.
Retail & FMCG sector may face disruption in 2025 due to political and macroeconomic factors. The uncertainty remains elevated, as we anticipate more fiscal measures to be implemented to address the large budget deficit in Romania. Moreover, the presidential elections in 2024 have brought political instability at a new level, and Romania’s outlook has been revised to negative by rating agencies. The new tour of presidential elections in May 2005 has sparked considerable debate in the social media, influencing how consumers feel about the economy.
Methodology: YouGov Shopper Panel is based on continuously collected data and rolling surveys on 6,000 households representative for the total population in Romania.
YouGov Shopper Intelligence, Consumer Panel Services (formerly part of the GfK group through 2023), offers access to a wealth of expertise and quality consumer panel data. We help the world’s most recognized FMCG & Retail brands to deliver superior customer experiences at every stage of the shopper journey. Learn more about Shopper Panel.