Consumer confidence slightly dips amid general election uncertainty

• Consumer confidence saw a small downturn in June 2024 (-0.4)
• Confidence in short-term (+1.4) and longer-term (+2.3) house prices rose
• Mood around household finances over the past 30 days (-2.2) and next 12 months (-0.8) deteriorated

June 2024 saw a small deterioration in consumer confidence, according to the latest data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). The overall index declined from 109.8 to 109.4 (-0.4) in the final full month of Rishi Sunak’s government.

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security, and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and on their forecast for the coming 12 months.

Among workers, confidence in business activity declined for both our retrospective measures, which slumped from 112.5 to 109.7 (-2.8), and our forward-looking measures, which went from 124.0 to 123.1 (-0.9). Our poll of business leaders from last month showed that they were more likely to favour Labour than the Tories when it came to managing UK enterprise – we’ll see in the coming months whether the change of government has made workers more or less optimistic on this score.

Perceptions of job security were more of a mixed bag. Retrospective measures deteriorated from 98.2 to 95.2 (-3.0), but outlook jumped from 114.6 to 117.0 (+2.4). So workers were unhappier about their short-term prospects, but more optimistic about the future.

While confidence in household finances saw gains in April and May, both measures backslid in June. Scores for the past 30 days deteriorated from 94.5 to 92.3 (-2.2), while scores for the year ahead declined from 97.5 to 96.8 (-0.7). Again, we’ll see how (if at all) the new government has affected people’s perceptions next month.

Finally, homeowners were a little more chipper in June than they were in May. Retrospective measures jumped from 111.4 to 112.8 (+1.4), while outlook improved from 125.8 to 128.1 (+2.3).