Consumer confidence increases for the third month in a row
November 16th, 2023, Christien Pheby

Consumer confidence increases for the third month in a row

  • Consumer confidence rose (+1.2) in October
  • Perceptions of business activity over the past 30 days (+2.8) and for the next 12 months (+3.9) improved
  • Short-term (+2.0) household finance measures increased, as did outlook (+2.1)
  • But homeowners grew more pessimistic as retrospective (-1.6) and forward-looking (-1.8) metrics declined

Consumer confidence increased for the third successive month as perceptions of business activity and household finances improved, according to the latest research from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). The index rose from 101.0 to 102.2 (+1.2).

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security, and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.

Retrospective household finance measures went from 79.8 to 81.8 over the month of October (+2.0), and outlook saw a similar improvement from 80.9 to 83.0 (+2.1). This represents the third consecutive month in which these measures have risen. A partial explanation may be the reported decline in grocery inflation, which according to some headlines has fallen into single digits for the first time since mid-2022.

Workers were also, on the whole, more optimistic over the past month. Employees were more likely to report higher business activity, with scores for the last 30 days moving from 108.3 to 111.1 (+2.8) in October; scores for the year ahead rose even higher, from 117.7 to 121.6 (+3.9). Retrospective job security measures also jumped from 93.0 to 95.3 (+2.3).  While outlook saw more sluggish movements from 118.2 to 118.5 (+0.3), we can at least say the decline from the previous month – scores for this measure dipped -5.5 points in September – was arrested.

But in a month otherwise characterised by steady, if sometimes small improvements, house value measures were a black mark. Retrospective scores deteriorated from 101.0 to 99.4 (-1.6), while scores for the next 12 months fell from 108.9 to 107.1 (-1.8)