Consumer confidence rises after seven straight months of falls
August 12th, 2022, Christien Pheby

Consumer confidence rises after seven straight months of falls

  • Overall consumer confidence index rose by 2.0 in July – the first increase since November 2021
  • Household finance measures for the past 30 days (+5.3) and next 12 months (+3.1) have improved – while remaining strongly negative

  • Business outlook saw a jump of +3.5 points
  • Job security outlook also inched upwards (+1.3), as did the metric tracking future house values (+2.0)

Consumer confidence increased in July 2022 according to the newest data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The 2.0 point rise in the overall index brings an end to a seven-month stretch of decline that began in December 2021.

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security, and business activity, both over the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.

Much of the index’s improvement can be explained by an uptick in household finance measures. July saw the arrival of the first government cost of living payments for low-income households, which may have contributed to retrospective scores improving from 55.1 to 60.3 (+5.3), and to outlook improving from 48.7 to 51.8 (+3.1).

Despite this boost, the overall public mood around household finances remains downbeat for both measures. Fieldwork for this study took place before the Bank of England announced that inflation was expected to hit 13% in 2022.

Business activity metrics also saw improvements: with scores for the past 30 days rising from 110.5 to 111.0 (+0.5) and outlook rising from 118.3 to 121.8 (+3.5), employees are slightly more likely to report that their workplaces are busier than they were last month – and more likely to expect them to get busier in future.

Other metrics saw less dramatic movements. Perceptions of job security among UK workers inched up by 0.5 points from 93.3 to 93.7, but employees are more optimistic about the future, with the forward-looking metric moving from 119.6 to 120.9 (+1.3).

The only metric to see a decline in the index this month was the retrospective home value measure, which deteriorated by -0.5 points from 133.1 to 132.6. That said, homeowners are more optimistic than they were before after three months of worsening outlook: scores for this metric increased from 130.1 to 132.1 – an improvement of 2.0 points.