Navigating 2025: Consumer shifts and market signals in Romanian FMCG

The first quarter of 2025 unfolded against a backdrop of heightened volatility, uncertainty and a tense economic / political / social environment. As the Romanian FMCG industry moves further into the year, the sector continues to balance resilience with caution.

Signs of gradual normalization have emerged, suggesting that consumers are not only adjusting to elevated prices but are also selectively increasing their consumption across a majority of categories. The consumer goods sector continues to deliver a compelling mix of moderate value growth, rebounding volumes, stabilizing market indicators and evolving shopper behaviors – shaped by persistent inflation, cautious consumer confidence and shifting retail dynamics. Shoppers remain attentive to promotions, but the intensity of promotion-driven shopping is starting to stabilize.

This newsletter offers a snapshot of the key developments in Q1 2025 – highlighting how consumers are adapting their purchase habits, how promotional and private label trends are evolving and how retail formats are responding to the changing realities of shopper behavior.

Inflation drives, volume revives

After a sharp decline in consumer confidence at the end of 2024, sentiment remained subdued and continued to lag behind the EU average. This ongoing lack of optimism pursue to influence shopping behavior, reinforcing shoppers’ cautious spending habits.

Nevertheless, Romanian shoppers continued to spend – albeit cautiously – throughout the first quarter of 2025. The in-home consumer goods market held its ground, mirroring a growth trajectory similar to Q1 2024. The overall FMCG sector recorded a 9% uplift in value, and being, consistently with last year’s patter, largely fueled by inflation, which was an average of nearly 6%. Encouragingly, volume growth returned, signaling a positive shift after the volume contractions that closed out 2024. In parallel, a notable trend this quarter was the perpetuation of up-trading, which continues to shape purchasing behavior as shoppers increasingly shifted from lower-priced segments to more premium product tiers.

Volume recovery in Q1 was broad-based: 54% of FMCG categories registered volume increases, while only 32% experienced declines – highlighting a more resilient and responsive shopper landscape. Among the growing categories, over half saw their gains driven in the first place by increased household penetration, while roughly one-third benefited in the highest extent from larger quantities purchased per trip. Conversely, for those categories facing volume drops, the decline was evenly split between a shrinking shopper base and reduced purchase frequency.

Similar spending patterns and shopping missions rearrangement

A closer look at purchase behavior in Q1 2025 reveals continued shifts in how Romanian consumers shop. Purchase frequency once again fell below last year’s levels, comparable to the decline observed in Q1 2024. This decrease translates into fewer opportunities for brands to reach the shoppers and secure a place in their baskets. At the same time, average basket value saw double-digit growth compared to the same period last year. This uplift was driven not only by higher prices and ongoing up-trading trends but also by shifts in shopping missions. Stock-up and large stock-up trips continue to gain ground, although the growth in these missions was more moderate than the surge seen in Q1 2024.

Following a year of strong and steady growth in promotional share, Q1 2025 continued the upward trend – albeit the intensity of growth has started to moderate. Across the total FMCG market (excluding fresh products), promotional purchases accounted for 23% of the households spend, representing a modest 0.5 percentage point increase versus Q1 2024. This marks a stark contrast to the previous year, when promo share expanded with 3.5 percentage points vs Q1 2023. Home and personal care continue to rank first among the sectors with the highest increases in promotional purchases, while base food products, hot drinks and dairy eased the promotional weight vs Q1 2024.

This more tempered promotional growth is also reflected in shopper missions. The share of cherry-picking trips rose more moderately, suggesting that while promotions remain relevant, they are no longer driving behavior at the same intensity.

Another trend that persisted into 2025 is the decline of private label share. Private labels captured around 26% of household FMCG spending in Q1 – down nearly 1 percentage point year-over-year. The most notable declines were observed in core food categories where private labels have traditionally been strong, such as base foods and canned goods.

Subtle shifts in the retail channel mix

The retail landscape in Q1 2025 remained largely consistent with the same period last year. However, discounters experienced slower growth and failed to surpass the 30% market share threshold. In terms of shoppers traffic, the developments happening this quarter might be signaling a potential saturation within this formats, as both the number of quarterly shoppers and their visit frequency held steady versus Q1 2024. Despite this, discounters re-emerged as the fastest-growing channel, delivering volume growth, increasing their share of wallet and capturing turnover from all other formats. But another notable aspect is that hypermarkets registered a volume rebound in Q1 2025, reversing the downward trend seen in previous year.

Traditional trade stagnated just below a 24% market share, with visit frequency continuing to be a challenge. Rural areas were the notable exception, standing out as the only region where traditional formats managed to gain share.

Bucharest and large urban experienced the most significant shifts in channel dynamics. These areas saw a marked decline in hypermarket share, while discounters and supermarkets recorded notable gains.

Within the supermarket channel, cherry-picking remains the shopping mission with the most prominent growth. However, divergent trends emerged between international and local supermarkets. International supermarket chains faced a sharper decline in shopper penetration, while local chains contended with reduced purchase frequency compared to last year.

Looking Ahead into 2025

The Romanian FMCG industry is navigating a phase of cautious recovery. While consumer sentiment remains fragile, early signs of volume rebound, selective up-trading and broader category resilience signal a market that is gradually finding its footing.

The coming months will be critical in confirming whether this normalization trend continues – especially as external pressures persist and consumer behaviors evolve. Brands and retailers that remain agile, closely track shifting shopper missions and align with emerging value expectations will be best positioned to thrive in this dynamic landscape.

Methodology: YouGov Shopper is based on continuously collected data and rolling surveys on 6,000 households representative for the total population in Romania.

YouGov Shopper offers access to a wealth of expertise and quality consumer panel data. We help the world’s most recognized FMCG & Retail brands to deliver superior customer experiences at every stage of the shopper journey. Learn more about YouGov Shopper.